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Pakistan's census of
Afghans provides first detailed profile of the population
ISLAMABAD, August 25
(UNHCR) - An analysis of the information gathered during the census of
Afghans in Pakistan by the government earlier this year has revealed a
young population whose families arrived mainly in the early years of the
conflict in Afghanistan.
The findings are included in a new publication containing the wealth of
data gathered about Afghans who were living in Pakistan at the time of the
census, which was conducted from February 25 to March 11 by the government
of Pakistan with the assistance of the UN refugee agency.
"The census of Afghans, undertaken in all locations in Pakistan, shows
that 548,105 Afghan families, constituting 3,049,268 individuals,
currently reside in Pakistan. This census presents the clearest
quantitative and qualitative demographic data to date on Afghans in
Pakistan," says the report on the analysis.
The picture that has emerged shows an Afghan population
that has been in
Pakistan
for many years. Just over half said their families had arrived in 1979 and
1980, the period when the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan
triggered the biggest exodus. In fact, 80 percent of all Afghans said
their families had arrived by the end of 1985.
"The census also shows a young population," the report said. "Some 19
percent of Afghans in Pakistan are under the age of five, compared to
about 14.8 percent of Pakistan's population in this age group."
"This demographic profile underlines the fact that much of
the Afghan population was born in exile, and points to the
considerable challenge ahead for the Afghan government to
ensure sustainable reintegration by providing schools and employment for
returnees," it said.
The data is proving a valuable tool as the government of
Pakistan and
UNHCR press ahead with planning for the management of the Afghan
population after the end of the UNHCR voluntary repatriation programme.
The current agreement expires in March 2006.
That programme has assisted more than 2.5 million Afghans to return from
Pakistan since 2002, including 245,000 so far this year. That suggests
there were in excess of 5 million Afghans living in
Pakistan
at the start of the programme, a higher figure than believed at the time.
However, there had never been a census of Afghans in Pakistan and earlier
population estimates did not include the natural population increase from
births. In addition population figures were kept only for Afghans in
refugee camps, ignoring those living in cities. Assuming an annual 3
percent growth rate, the finding of the census provides a realistic image
of the Afghan population in Pakistan over the last 25 years.
There also had been no documentation of the normal
population flows across the border, which have increased since the end of
the Taliban government. A study earlier this year showed that more than
10,000 people crossed the Torkham border alone in each direction every
day. This was reflected in the government's acknowledgement that not all
Afghans in
Pakistan would be of concern to UNHCR.
A working group that includes the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan,
plus UNHCR, is using the analysis to help in planning a proposed
registration next year of all those recorded in the census. The data has
provided the most detailed profile ever compiled of Afghans in Pakistan.
By far the largest ethnic Afghan group in
Pakistan is Pashtun -
nearly 82 percent - as was expected because Pashtun
populations live on both sides of the border and because
other ethnic groups have returned in larger numbers since the end of the
Taliban regime in
Kabul
in 2001.
Some 62 percent of Afghans live in North West Frontier
province with 25 percent in Balochistan, 7 percent in
Punjab and 4 percent in
Sindh. Some 58 percent of the population were living outside camps while
42 percent were in UNHCR-assisted camps. The census also indicates that 62
percent of the Afghans living in
Pakistan
originates from six provinces in Afghanistan - 17 percent Nangarhar, 11
percent Kabul, 10 percent
Kandahar and 8 percent
Kunduz.
Few Afghans have regular jobs. Some 55 percent of households said their
livelihood came from daily labour, which may even understate the situation
because a further 20 percent described themselves as self-employed. Only 9
percent said they were employed.
More than 17 percent of Afghans told the enumerators they intended to
return to Afghanistan
during 2005 - a total of 532,000 - which is a bit higher than the 400,000
Afghans that UNHCR predicted would return to
Afghanistan
during this year.
But the reasons cited for not returning showed a shift from that given by
Afghans earlier in the repatriation programme. More that 57 percent said a
lack of shelter and access to land in Afghanistan was stopping them from
repatriating, with a further 18 percent naming a lack of livelihood
opportunities there. The census responses underline the need for
continuing development assistance in Afghanistan.
Interestingly, security concerns inside Afghanistan - once the main reason
given for not returning from Pakistan - was named by less than 18 percent
of all those in the census.
The census included a wide range of questions including current residence,
place of origin, length of stay in Pakistan, livelihood, ethnicity, and
intentions to repatriate. It was carried out by 3,143 government staff
under the Population and Census Organisation, with UNHCR teams monitoring.
Participation was mandatory for all Afghans who arrived in Pakistan after
December 1, 1979, the month in which Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan and
triggered a mass exodus of refugees to
Pakistan
and Iran. Only those who were included in the census will be eligible to
be included in a registration, which will provide some form of
identification.
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